Embrace technology to address the looming healthcare delivery crisis

The US is becoming older, sicker, and running out of doctors. By the end of this decade, we will be in a much worse situation than we are now—not considering the runaway train, which is the cost of care. Legislative action is unlikely given the societal polarization, and other avenues of help are limited. However, the one silver lining is technology, be it AI, wearables, or ingestibles. They hold great promise to transform care delivery and positively impact the quadruple aim of care (cost, experience, health outcomes, and equity).

For the first time in its history, America will have more older people than younger folks

If form is to fit function, then healthcare must be designed to address its citizens’ health and care needs. In a society where the demographic shift will be unprecedented—with more seniors than youngsters (see Exhibit 1)—the healthcare design, training, infrastructure, and delivery must be modified. There is very limited discussion, if any, to prepare for this significant national event that is less than a decade away.

Exhibit 1: A societal reckoning is imminent as more seniors than youngsters wander among us

Source: US Census Bureau, HFS Research, 2024

America will continue to get sicker

It is hardly surprising that US population health is not commensurate with the world’s highest annual per capita spend of around $13,000 on healthcare. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 6 in 10 Americans have a chronic condition, and 4 in 10 have 2 or more chronic conditions (see Exhibit 2). Also, life expectancy is the lowest among OECD countries.

Exhibit 2: America’s health needs immediate attention

Source: CDC, HFS Research, 2024

The US will see critical clinical shortages by the end of the decade

While the demand for care is clearly rising, the supply will be critically inadequate. Exhibit 3 reflects the shortages we are currently experiencing and projects a shortfall of roughly 80,000 by the end of the decade across all specialties. This clinical staffing inadequacy does not include nurses, pharmacists, and other para clinicians, which means the real story is even scarier.

Exhibit 3: We are 55,000 short of docs today, will be 79,000 short by the end of the decade, and 81,000 of the required by 2035

Source: Bureau of Health Workforce, US Dept. of Health and Human Services, HFS Research, 2024

Integrated contemporary technology can help deliver care despite the endemic challenges

The current care delivery subscribes to a demand-based paradigm, where consumers seek care based on how they feel. This means that care delivery constantly reacts to consumers’ needs instead of proactively addressing them. While vaccinations and other preventive care help, they need to be more demand-based, making clinical staffing unoptimized.

However, transitioning (partially since true emergencies will always be demand-based) to a need-based care delivery paradigm can help us optimize clinical staffing and improve health outcomes. The thesis of need-based intervention is to analyze and make decisions based on data captured from consumers in real time. This approach will negate the need for consumers to triage their condition (who often are qualified too) and for clinicians to indulge in trial and error to treat patients, reducing time and cost. Need-based care can be practiced using currently available technologies such as wearables, ingestibles, and home digital health devices (see Exhibit 4), augmented with data aggregation and AI-enabled analysis that will trigger interventions based on personalized wellness thresholds. The best part of the need-based approach is that technology is available right now, consumers are becoming open to new models, and clinicians can certainly do with real help.

Exhibit 4: The demand-based care delivery must be augmented at scale with need-based care delivery for us to survive the future

Source: HFS Research, 2024

The Bottom Line: Integrate digital health technologies and AI-driven analytics today to mitigate healthcare workforce shortages and improve patient outcomes.

AI, GenAI, metaverse, mobility, cloud, quantum computing, and other technologies are primed to help healthcare delivery leapfrog and address the endemic issues of the current times. While technology can’t help aging and chronic conditions, it can undoubtedly ease and transform care delivery.