We know how to solve sustainability: Transition plan and find your critical mass

Politics has not—and will not—move at the speed or scale the climate and broader sustainability emergency demands. Instead, businesses must move. They must lead to avoid frantically reacting to catch up when regulation and public pressure systemically change.

That leadership must start at the CEO and board levels. However, everyone in an organization must understand the clear concept of global sustainability. Teams and entire organizations should align that context with external stakeholders, employees, functions, processes, and technology. Focus on your material spheres of influence. Prove sustainability works in all environmental, social, and economic facets. Create a critical mass to support that proof—amplified by ambition, including positive lobbying. If that ambition is poorly received, embed sustainability—undramatically—into strategies and operations. Focus on delivering on the combined value for people, the planet, and the business.

For 70 years, our best narratives and evidence have failed to achieve the change sustainability demands. But the most ambitious and influential businesses can change the narrative publicly while accelerating action behind the scenes.

More than 90% of senior climate scientists expect the world will exceed the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees of global warming

Research published in Bioscience outlines 28 negative feedback loop tipping points, several of which will likely be triggered at 1.5 degrees (Ripple et al. 2024). Of 35 planetary vital signs, 25 are at their all-time worst. The paper begins, “We are on the brink of an IRREVERSIBLE climate disaster.” And the damning—but simultaneously hopeful—truth is we know how to fix this emergency.

The 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are perfect endpoints for developing your business roadmaps

Even if every data point isn’t available, there is enough clarity of the problem and examples of success to decide what’s materially impactful to move forward on the trajectories of the SDGs—Paris Agreement and beyond.

While there are perceptions of a backlash against sustainability initiatives (see our recent perspective on this “greenlash”), with the oil and gas sector especially rolling back its (not great to begin with) climate commitments, the vast majority of businesses are increasing their sustainability ambition and spending. So don’t fall for the greenlash—it’s a greenhush at most—or you’ll find your business frantically trying to catch up when the mist clears.

Exhibit 1: The SDGs connect environmental, social, and economic challenges facing the planet and society

Source: United Nations

Emissions are an illustrative example of breaking down the global context

We know what activities contribute to the approximately 50 gigatons of global emissions that must be eliminated (see Exhibit 2). Electricity must be produced from clean sources. Manufacturing should be electrified where possible and decarbonized through new processes otherwise. Road and rail transport should also be electrified—with aviation and shipping innovations pointing in the right, albeit challenging, direction. Heat pumps and renewable electricity can power buildings. Agricultural innovation is also challenging, but reducing meat consumption, halting deforestation, and improving land management are clear, impactful actions.

Exhibit 2: Breaking down global emissions by source outlines the path to decarbonization

Source: World Emissions Clock (World Data Lab), 2024

Transition plans must start with a global context and permeate the entire organization

Sustainability goes far beyond decarbonization to encompass all environmental challenges, including waste, water, biodiversity, and more. It also profoundly affects our societies, economies, and organizational governance (see Exhibit 3).

Social sustainability cannot solely be corporate social responsibility (CSR) projects but must include a range of measures from a duty of care for your employees’ wellbeing to a “just” energy transition that works for the least advantaged. The International Energy Agency (IEA) outlines how, in the long run, everyone will benefit from a transition to clean energy—but the upfront costs must be derisked for investors and be shared by those who can afford them.

Exhibit 3: Break down the global sustainability context and align your organization

Source: HFS Research, 2024

The global sustainability context is vast, and the spheres of influence are equally extensive for the biggest, most influential companies (see Exhibit 4). However, the global context can also be overwhelming. Clarity on the most significant potential positive and negative impacts will help prioritize actions in your transition plans when the list of potential sustainability initiatives can seem endless.

Exhibit 4: Focus on material spheres of influence to maximize your impact on sustainability

Source: HFS Research, 2024

A sustainability spectrum is diverging between the critical mass targeting systemic change and a lack of demand—that, in turn, demands embedded sustainability

On one end of the spectrum (see Exhibit 5) is the critical mass: the coming together of people and organizations to prove sustainability works in all its environmental, social, and economic intersections. This pulls policymaking, consumer behavior, and business into alignment with the trajectories of the SDGs based on new confidence that it can be achieved.

HFS Research will soon explore the dynamics of systems change and the critical mass in greater detail.

Exhibit 5: If firms collaborate with their clients and partners to form a critical mass, they can be architects of the positive tipping points sustainability needs

Source: HFS Research, 2024

Where systemic change does not seem possible through innovation and advocacy, businesses can embed sustainability into their strategies, processes, and whole value chains. In doing so, they can create a positive impact regardless of whether clients and regulators demand sustainability. Exhibit 6 outlines embedding sustainability from a professional services point of view.

Exhibit 6: Embedding sustainability throughout teams, clients, engagements, and ecosystems—going far beyond addressing internal sustainability alone

Source: HFS Research, 2024

Lobby to align transition plans, systemic sustainability change, and embedding sustainability

Businesses must lobby positively to combat the negative influence of firms, industries, and politicians who resist sustainability. Advocate for a mix of incentives and tariffs that align with the global sustainability context. Lobby for phased implementation. Lobby for certainty. A phased transition aiming for positive outcomes will be better for everyone than a frantic reaction to harsh penalties when no other policy option exists.

The Bottom Line: The near future for sustainability is uncertain, but the long-term timeline is not—it cannot be.

When the herd moves on sustainability, regulations will come down hard, public perception will shift unforgivingly, and businesses will have to adapt. But who will customers, regulators, and ecosystem partners reward? Those who ambitiously set the new sustainable standard—or who resisted change?