The evolving US food retail complexion: Triggered by lifestyle and weight-loss drugs

In a seminal moment for the US food and grocery retail sector, the burgeoning wellness movement has converged with the unprecedented success of weight-loss pharmaceuticals, exemplified by Ozempic. This synergy is catalyzing a profound transformation in consumer purchasing behavior, prompting a pivotal question: What strategic adaptations must retailers undertake to remain relevant in a market where health-centricity is increasingly the norm? The implications are far-reaching, with potential outcomes ranging from enhanced customer loyalty and expanded market share to obsolescence for those failing to evolve.

The ascendance of holistic well-being: A data-driven narrative

The emphasis on holistic health and well-being is no longer a niche preference but a structural, data-backed evolution in consumer behavior, as depicted in Exhibit 1.

In 2020, the global wellness economy was valued at $5.5 trillion. It has since expanded at an impressive rate, outpacing global GDP growth. Projections for 2025 suggest the market could surpass $6.7 trillion. Key drivers include increased focus on mental and physical health, preventive care, and aligning lifestyle choices with long-term well-being goals.

Exhibit 1: The food market is rapidly becoming more health-conscious, changing the entire sales basket

Source: HFS Research, 2024

This shift is particularly evident in the US, where 75% of Americans actively seek healthier eating habits, and nearly half prioritize nutrition when purchasing food. Millennials and Gen Z—collectively holding growing economic power—are 1.5 times more likely to focus on health and wellness than Baby Boomers. Their preferences have reshaped the demand landscape, making nutrient-dense, organic, and functional foods a cornerstone of retail strategy. As these generations grow older and their purchasing power increases, their preferences are set to dominate retail food markets.

The Ozempic effect: A catalyst for healthier consumer behavior

Pharmaceutical innovations such as Ozempic (semaglutide), a diabetes drug, are creating a ripple effect that extends beyond clinical settings and into daily consumer behavior. The drug’s remarkable success—a 129% year-over-year sales increase in 2022—is partly attributed to its off-label use for weight loss. However, its impact goes deeper. Research shows that individuals on weight loss medications consume up to 30% fewer fast foods and sweets, reflecting a broader lifestyle adjustment influenced by pharmaceutical interventions. Furthermore, 61% of users report an increased motivation to adopt healthier dietary habits.

The new paradigm presents new opportunities for food retailers

• Rebalancing product portfolios: The US organic food market, projected to grow from $60 billion in 2023 to more than $85 billion by 2027, offers a clear opportunity for retailers to prioritize whole, nutrient-dense foods. Retailers should actively reorient their inventory strategies toward organic, fresh, and minimally processed products. Building partnerships with local and regional producers can reduce logistical costs, improve freshness, and align with consumer preferences for transparency and traceability. Additionally, in-store merchandising must emphasize these products, using prime shelf placements and compelling displays to encourage impulse purchases.
• Expanding health-focused alternatives: The global market for plant-based and nutritionally enhanced foods is on track to grow from $40 billion in 2024 to $75 billion by 2030. Retailers can capture this growth by collaborating with emerging brands specializing in functional and plant-based foods. Beyond stocking these products, investing in educational initiatives—such as in-store demonstrations or interactive digital signage—can inform consumers about these offerings’ nutritional benefits and sustainability, driving both sales and customer trust.
• Embracing personalized nutrition through technology: Personalized nutrition has explosive potential, with the market projected to exceed $20 billion globally by 2030. Leveraging AI-powered platforms and wearable health technologies, retailers can create bespoke shopping experiences tailored to individual health goals. These systems can offer real-time dietary recommendations, product suggestions, and meal-planning tools, enhancing customer engagement and loyalty. Simultaneously, aggregated data from these platforms can inform inventory planning, ensuring that stores stock products that align with emerging consumer needs.
• Integrating pharmaceuticals and retail for holistic health: The convergence of pharmaceuticals and food retail presents an untapped frontier. Collaborations with pharmaceutical companies could enable retailers to provide integrated wellness solutions, blending medication adherence with curated dietary plans. For example, offering subscription services that combine prescription management with personalized meal kits could create a seamless health management experience for consumers. Retailers that pioneer such models may gain a significant competitive edge in this health-centric economy.

The Bottom Line: By embracing the shift toward health-centric portfolios, expanding partnerships with innovative brands, integrating technology for personalized nutrition, and pioneering collaborations with pharmaceutical companies, retailers can secure relevance and thrive in this dynamic environment.

As the pharmaceutical industry continues innovating, the ripple effects on food retail will likely deepen. The alignment of weight-loss medication with healthier consumption patterns offers retailers a unique opportunity to become seen as enablers of long-term wellness rather than mere suppliers of goods.